TRB remains the strongest cryptocurrency this week

On Wednesday, October 18, Fed Governor Waller (who has voting rights at the FOMC meeting), a Federal Reserve official regarded as hawkish by the outside world, hinted that the Fed could afford to wait on interest rate decisions and could stay and put to observe progress in reducing inflation. Whatever the situation is, then make a decision.

Waller said he would weigh recently released data to determine whether the Fed has succeeded in lowering inflation or whether the economy still has the resilience to push up prices and create upward pressure on inflation.

"As of today, it's too early to draw conclusions. So I believe we can wait and see how the economy evolves before taking definite action on the path of policy rates."

Waller said that if the real economy weakens, the Fed will have more room to wait and see on further rate hikes, allowing the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields to have some effect.

"But if the real economy continues to show underlying underlying strength and inflation appears to be stabilizing or re-accelerating, further tightening of (monetary) policy may be necessary even with the recent rise in long-term interest rates."

In addition to rising U.S. bond yields, Waller also noted that economic data over the past few months has brought "pretty positive" good news about inflation.

On the same day, another dovish official with voting rights at the FOMC meeting, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, also mentioned that we should wait for a while before making a decision.

Harker said he thinks the Fed is likely to wait until early next year to determine whether the rapid rate hikes over the past 20 months have been enough to curb inflation.

Because monetary policy has a lag effect, Harker believes that higher borrowing costs will still be a drag on the economy despite recent data showing that the labor and consumer markets are returning to strength.

On Wednesday, U.S. housing starts accelerated in September from the previous reading but were lower than expected, and building permits fell but were higher than expected.

U.S. mortgage rates have risen for six consecutive weeks, with the average 30-year mortgage rate rising to 8% for the first time since 2000 on Wednesday. Demand for mortgage loans has dropped to its lowest level in 28 years since 1995. It shows that the already troubled property market is facing further downward momentum.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that economic activity in most regions has remained unchanged since September, prices continue to rise moderately, and the short-term outlook for the U.S. economy is broadly described as stable or slightly weak growth. Loan demand fell modestly and default rates increased slightly.

In terms of the job market, overall employment increased slightly in most Federal Reserve jurisdictions, and companies have less urgency to hire. Several regions report improved recruitment and retention rates as more applicants apply, the pool of candidates expands, and those hired become less willing to negotiate terms of employment. However, most regions still report continued challenges in recruiting and hiring skilled workers. A few regions emphasized that older workers remain in the labor force, either staying in their current positions or returning in a part-time capacity.

Businesses expect prices to rise at a slower pace in the coming quarters than in previous quarters. In terms of prices, local Fed jurisdictions pointed out that the input costs of manufacturing companies have slowed down or stabilized, but the input costs of service industry companies continue to grow. Increases in fuel costs, wages and insurance have led to higher prices in various regions.

Respondent companies expect prices to rise in the coming quarters, but at a slower pace than in previous quarters. Some regions reported fewer companies expecting significant price increases in the future.

Overall, the Beige Book predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow down slightly in the short term, while pointing out that labor market tensions continued to ease in September and prices continued to rise moderately.

On October 18, as risk aversion triggered by the conflict in the Middle East increased, U.S. bond yields hit a high in more than ten years, U.S. stocks collectively opened lower and moved lower, with chip stocks leading the decline for the second consecutive day.

The S&P 500 index closed down 58.60 points, or 1.34%, to 4314.60 points. The Dow closed down 332.57 points, or 0.98%, to 33665.08 points. The Nasdaq closed down 219.44 points, or 1.62%, to 13314.30 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%. The "fear index" VIX once rose by more than 10% and pushed up to 20 to reach its highest level in two weeks.

 
The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose by a maximum of 8 basis points, exceeding 4.90% for the first time since 2007. The 30-year long-term bond yield also rose by nearly 8 basis points and once exceeded 5%, approaching the highest level in 16 years. The 5-year yield rose more than 6 basis points to the highest level since 2007.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly at the beginning of the U.S. stock market, then turned higher before midday and rose as much as 3 basis points to 5.24%. It hit a 17-year high for two consecutive days since 2006. U.S. stocks erased all gains in late trading.

The U.S. Treasury Department issued $13 billion of 20-year Treasury bonds this week, with a bid rate of 5.245%, a new high since Bloomberg data was recorded on May 20, 2020. The bid multiple was 2.59, weaker than the previous value of 2.74, Represents sluggish demand.

The U.S. dollar index DXY rose 0.3% to 106.50, basically recovering from the week's losses. It hit an 11-month high of 107.34 two weeks ago.

Analysts say that since mid-July, as the U.S. economy shows no signs of slowing down, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed about 100 basis points, and the U.S. dollar index has surged about 7%.

In terms of cryptocurrency, BTC once again showed a trend of rising then falling yesterday.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has moved near the lower edge of the triangle pattern. The price is currently oscillating within a narrow range between $28,000 and $28,400. The MACD indicator has reached a dead cross at a high level and faces the risk of continuing to fall in the short term.

Personal opinion, for reference only.

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TRB remains the strongest cryptocurrency this week. On the 4-hour chart, TRB broke through the upper edge of the triangle pattern and started to rise. Since TRB has risen sharply against the trend before, it is not recommended to chase the rise in the short term. You can wait for the pullback and then buy in batches.

Personal opinion, for reference only.

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Finally, share the recent promising cryptocurrencies

ORDI

Using the Ordinals protocol, developers can write information to each satoshi (sat, the smallest unit of Bitcoin), such as text, pictures, audio and video, etc. Due to the Bitcoin block size limit, it is mainly inscribed (that is, minted) mint) information is mainly text and pictures, that is, in the form of NFT and token. Ordi is the first and most valuable BRC-20 token on the BTC network.

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